Entry timing, exploration, and firm survival in the early U.S. bicycle industry
研究了早期美国自行车行业中企业进入时机与生存概率的关系，发现最早进入的企业因惯性难以转向最终主导产品设计，其生存优势仅限于主导设计出现之前。
Abstract We explore the relationship between a firm's entry timing and its probability of surviving the early, uncertain period of its industry, and consider the trade‐off between entering early and potentially establishing a strong position in the industry vs. waiting until technological uncertainty is reduced. We hypothesize that, owing to inertial forces, firms that enter the industry at the earliest point in its history are least likely to make the conversion to the product generation that becomes the dominant design in the industry. Exploration through the introduction of new products appears to reflect a local search process and retards the transition to the dominant design. We also hypothesize that, though firms entering early may exhibit longer life spans, their advantages are limited to the period before the emergence of the dominant design. We test our hypotheses in the early U.S. bicycle industry, and find evidence consistent with the idea that inertia limits firms' abilities to make the transition between generations of product configurations. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.