Entrepreneuring as a puzzle: an attempt to its explanation with truncation of subjective probability distribution of prospects
研究发现创业者的风险回报率低于私募股权指数，远低于公开股权指数，通过主观理性解释为创业者截断了未来可能的状态，形成有过度信心的条件分布，使不利赔率变得有吸引力。
Abstract This research presents entrepreneuring as a puzzle where entrepreneurs venture at a risk‐return level that is worse than that of the private equity index and much worse than the public equity index. Under subjective rationality, we explain this puzzle by the possibility that entrepreneurs configure their outlook by dismissing some possible future performance states. Their forward view reflects a truncated and conditional distribution with overcredence. The unfavorable odds under a nontruncated distribution become very attractive after truncation. Copyright © 2008 Strategic Management Society.