Trade reforms, credibility, and development
分析贸易自由化未来走向的不确定性如何影响投资和政策，发现这种不确定性会抑制储蓄，并对不同方向的投资产生类似补贴或税收的效果，进而提出相应的政策干预建议。
This paper analyzes the implications of uncertainty regarding the future course of trade liberalization on investment and policies. Uncertainty concerning the future tariff rate is shown to depress saving, and to operate as a subsidy (tax) on inward (outward) investment. We identify the need to tax (subsidize) private investment in the importable (exportable) sector. The elimination of sectorial private investment policies calls for a rise (drop) in the public/private capital ratio in the outward-oriented (inward-oriented) activities. In the presence of an external credit ceiling, a higher degree of risk aversion increases the magnitude (without changing the nature) of the policies.