Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations
分解生产率和工时,发现技术冲击导致工时与生产率负相关且工时持续下降,这与传统真实经济周期理论不符,但与垄断竞争和价格粘性模型一致。
I estimate a decomposition of productivity and hours into technology and non-technology components. Two results stand out: (a) the estimated conditional correlations of hours and productivity are negative for technology shocks, positive for nontechnology shocks; (b) hours show a persistent decline in response to a positive technology shock. Most of the results hold for a variety of model specifications, and for the majority of G7 countries. The picture that emerges is hard to reconcile with a conventional real-business-cycle interpretation of business cycles, but is shown to be consistent with a simple model with monopolistic competition and sticky prices.