Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries: how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design?
在印度开展实验，测试了用豆子和区间图等视觉工具引出主观概率时，改变豆子数量、支持区间设计和问题顺序对结果的影响，发现结果对设计变化相当稳健，但更多豆子和更多预定区间能提高精度。
Abstract Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. We conduct an experiment in India which tests the sensitivity of elicited expectations to variations in three facets of the elicitation methodology: the number of beans, the design of the support (predetermined or self‐anchored), and the ordering of questions. Our results show remarkable robustness to variations in elicitation design. Nevertheless, the added precision offered by using more beans and a larger number of intervals with a predetermined support improves accuracy. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.