Monetary Policy, Aggregate Uncertainty, and the Stock Market
构建了一个货币经济中的一般均衡资产定价模型,发现货币政策制度系统性地影响股票价格与消费风险的关系,且未来货币政策的不确定性会明确推高当前股价,同时形式化了Geske-Roll关于股票收益与通胀负相关的解释。
The authors develop and analyze a simple general equilibrium model of asset pricing in a monetary economy where the growth rate in money is partially determined by the policy of the monetary authority. Their model implies that the relationship between stock prices and consumption risk is systematically dependent on the monetary policy regime, indicates that a rise in the 'noise' associated with a given future monetary policy unambiguously increases current stock prices, and formalizes the Geske-Roll (1983) explanation for the observed negative correlation between stock returns and inflation. Copyright 1995 by Ohio State University Press.