Farm‐Level Economic Analysis Incorporating Stochastic Environmental Risk Assessment
提出一个农场层面的风险规划框架，评估收入与环境风险之间的权衡，并应用于美国俄克拉荷马州狭长地带代表性农场，发现预期收入对硝酸盐限制敏感，而对农药限制相对不敏感。
Abstract A farm‐level risk programming framework is presented which evaluates income/ environmental risk tradeoffs. This framework uses a time‐series of environmental risk indices to incorporate the stochastic, multiattribute characteristics of environmental outcomes associated with agricultural production practices. The model is applied to a representative farm in the Oklahoma Panhandle region of the Central High Plains. Results indicate that expected income is sensitive to nitrate loading restrictions, and relatively less sensitive to pesticide loading restrictions. Results also indicate that prescriptions derived using deterministic environmental risk measures may ignore significant probabilities of exceeding an environmental standard.