人口老龄化与内生经济增长

Population aging and endogenous economic growth

Journal of Population Economics · 2012
被引 240 · 同刊同年前 3%
人大 A-ABS 3

中文导读

研究了人口老龄化对长期经济增长的影响,发现寿命延长促进人均产出增长,而生育率下降则起抑制作用;在内生增长框架下,老龄化总体促进长期增长。

Abstract

We investigate the consequences of population aging for long-run economic growth perspectives. Our framework incorporates endogenous growth models and semi-endogenous growth models as special cases. We show that (1) increases in longevity have a positive impact on per capita output growth, (2) decreases in fertility have a negative impact on per capita output growth, (3) the positive longevity effect dominates the negative fertility effect in case of the endogenous growth framework, and (4) population aging fosters long-run growth in the endogenous growth framework, while its effect depends on the relative change between fertility and mortality in the semi-endogenous growth framework.

人口老龄化内生经济增长半内生经济增长寿命延长生育率下降