Devaluation Expectations: The Swedish Krona 1982-1991
用多种方法估算1982-1991年瑞典克朗的贬值预期，包括简单检验和Bertola-Svensson方法，并分析宏观变量和议会选举对预期的影响。
Devaluation expectations for the Swedish krona are estimated for the period 1982-1991 with several methods. First the "simplest test" is applied under either only the minimal assumption of "no positive minimum profit" or the additional assumption of uncovered interest parity. Then a more precise method suggested by Bertola and Svensson is used, in which expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band, estimated in several ways, are subtracted from interest rate differentials. Finally, estimated devaluations expectations are to some extent explained by a few macrovariables and parliament elections.