Ludwig Lachmann on expectations in his early writings: an aborted theory?
研究了拉赫曼1943和1945年论文中关于预期内生形成的观点，分析其因果分析尝试的缺陷，并指出其理论对解释经济波动的潜在价值。
This article investigates how Ludwig Lachmann introduced the question of the endogenous formation of expectations in his 1943 and 1945 papers, a theoretical issue that remained at the heart of his research program throughout his career. After presenting the methodological and theoretical characteristics of the question he identified in 1943, I consider the embryonic causal analysis of expectations he tried to develop in 1945 by borrowing from Oskar Lange’s concept of the practical range. I then expose the methodological and theoretical flaws that may explain why he did not develop this analysis further in his subsequent works. Despite these flaws, I show that some insights of his aborted theory may nevertheless be of some usefulness to explain the causes of economic fluctuations. A possible reorientation of how to tackle the question of expectations is proposed in the conclusion.