An Estimable Dynamic Stochastic Model of Fertility and Child Mortality
构建了一个有限期动态随机离散选择模型，分析婴儿存活不确定下家庭的生命周期生育决策，包括子女数量、时机和间隔，并基于马来西亚数据用最大似然法估计模型参数。
This paper develops a finite-horizon dynamic stochastic model of discrete choice with respect to life-cycle fertility within an environment where infant survival is uncertain. The model yields implications for the number, timing, and spacing of children. A tractable estimation method is developed for the linear constraint-quadratic utility case that is intimately tied to the dynamic optimization problem, and the method is applied to Malaysian household data. Estimation is based on integrating the numerical solution of the dynamic programming model of behavior with a maximum likelihood procedure.