Exhaustible Resources: A Theory of Exploration
提出可耗竭资源的勘探理论，勘探既用于发现新储量也用于获取潜在储量信息。资源价格的实际路径不服从霍特林规则，但预期价格以贴现率指数增长。当资源随机分布且服从泊松过程时，分析了已知和未知参数λ下的消费与勘探决策。
The paper presents a theory of exploration for exhaustible resources. Exploration serves both to find new reserves and obtain information about potential reserves. Although any realized time path of the resource price fails to obey the Hotelling rule, the expected resource price does increase exponentially through time at the rate of discount. We obtain sharper results when the resource is assumed to be distributed randomly throughout the exploration region and follows a Poisson process with parameter λ. Consumption and exploration decisions are investigated for both the case where λ is known and the case where λ is unknown.