The Economics of Normalcy
研究了1920年代美国因外生因素导致投资倾向下降、储蓄倾向上升，进而推高资产价格并通过财富效应维持高就业，最终资产价格回落引发储蓄过剩的过程。
For reasons that were exogenous or predetermined, the ex ante propensity to invest out of income in the United States declined in the 1920s while the ex ante propensity to save increased. The consequent ex ante surplus available for saving drove up asset prices. Higher asset prices produced a substantial wealth effect on consumption, converting ex ante saving into ex post consumption. Output was consequently maintained at high employment. Eventually asset markets reacted to excessive price levels. Then the momentum of falling asset prices released and reinforced the weight of “surplus” saving.