An Application of Operational-Subjective Statistical Methods to Rational Expectations
用顺序评分法分析美国GNP六个计量经济预测分布，评估其校准与细化性质，数据覆盖1952-1982年，对研究理性预期和预测评估的学者有参考价值。
This article presents a sequential scoring analysis of six econometric forecast distributions for the main components of the annual U.S. gross national product (GNP) accounts—nominal GNP, real GNP, and the implicit price deflator. Analysis of sequential forecasts is presented in terms of proper scoring rules. Computations relevant to the calibration and refinement properties of the forecast distributions are discussed. Annual data are studied for the period 1952–1982. The six forecast distributions are distinguished by the different stances they entail with respect to a subjectivist characterization of the rational-expectations hypothesis.