Capacity Constraints and Cycles in Property-Casualty Insurance Markets
检验了承保周期理论中容量约束假说与套利理论，利用四种保险线的数据发现，未预期的容量下降会导致盈利能力和价格上升，支持容量约束假说。
Underwriting cycles are unexpected in a structurally competitive industry where financial capital is the major determinant of output capacity. theories explain underwriting cycles as largely an artifact of institutional lags and reporting practices: theories view insurance markets as characterized by real frictions that cause underwriting cycles by temporarily reducing the industry's capacity to insure risks. Arbitrage theories imply nofsystematic relationship between capacity and underwriting margins, while capacity-constraint hypotheses predict a negative relationship. This article provides a test of the two theories by examining the empirical relationship between caSacity and underwriting margins. The results, using data on four insurance lines, generally support the capacity-constraint hypothesis; unanticipated decreases in capacity cause higher profitability and prices.