Inflation-Gap Persistence in the US
用带漂移系数和随机波动的向量自回归模型，研究美国通胀缺口的持续性是否变化，发现大通胀时期上升、沃尔克反通胀后下降，并用新凯恩斯模型解释央行通胀目标变化的作用。
We estimate vector autoregressions with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatility to investigate whether US inflation persistence has changed. We focus on the inflation gap, defined as the difference between inflation and trend inflation, and we measure persistence in terms of short- to medium-term predictability. We present evidence that inflation-gap persistence increased during the Great Inflation and that it fell after the Volcker disinflation. We interpret these changes using a dynamic new Keynesian model that highlights the importance of changes in the central bank's inflation target.