Returns to contrarian investment strategies: Tests of naive expectations hypotheses
检验了投资者天真预期模型能否解释反向投资策略的高回报，发现股价并未天真外推过去盈利趋势，但天真依赖分析师盈利预测可解释一半以上的反向策略超额回报。
This paper examines the ability of naive investor expectations models to explain the higher returns to contrarian investment strategies. Contrary to Lakonishok, Shleifer, and Vishny (1994), we find no systematic evidence that stock prices reflect naive extrapolation of past trends in earnings and sales growth. Building on Bauman and Dowen (1988) and La Porta (1995), however, we find that stock prices appear to naively reflect analysts' biased forecasts of future earnings growth. Further, we find that naive reliance on analysts' forecasts of future earnings growth can explain over half of the higher returns to contrarian investment strategies.