The Long-Run Creditworthiness of Developing Countries: Theory and Practice
分析发展中国家长期信用度的决定因素，将资本积累与外债联系起来，并用历史数据验证理论框架，对研究主权债务问题的学者有参考价值。
This paper analyzes the determinants of developing country long-run creditworthiness, focusing on the process of capital accumulation relative to external debt. Creditworthiness depends on the actual capital stock compared with a critical level, representing the gross wealth just sufficient to ensure that interest payments to foreigners never exhaust national output given expected gross inflows and existing outstanding debt. Hence, the probability of rescheduling is linked to debt service-capital, net inflows-capital, investment rates, and income levels. The empirical results, based on a probit analysis of historical rescheduling incidents, are quite robust and supportive of the theoretical framework.