The Cyclic Behavior of the U.S. Lodging Industry
利用1969至1994年的新数据，发现美国酒店业经历了两次大规模建设热潮，而需求随经济高频波动。模型显示入住率与房价、房价与新供给之间存在长滞后，导致系统接近动态不稳定，预测未来将出现更大建设热潮。
A recently constructed data series suggests that the hotel industry has experienced two rather large building booms from 1969 to 1994. By contrast, hotel demand seems to move closely with the United States economy, at a much higher cyclic frequency. Occupancy and room rental rates follow the slower movements in supply. A structural model is estimated over this series which displays long lags between occupancy and room rental rate changes, as well as between room rental rates and new supply. These lags create a system of difference equations that is close to being dynamically unstable. Forecasting forward with smooth economic growth, yields a new and even larger future building boom.