A Method of Exploring the Mechanism of Inflationary Expectations Based on Qualitative Survey Data
提出一种利用定性调查数据分析通胀预期形成机制的方法，将调查数据视为多项分布样本，用贝叶斯递归估计时变参数，并以日本数据为例发现企业预期形成过程随时间变化很大。
The objective of this article is to propose a method of exploring the mechanism of expectation formation based on qualitative survey data. The survey data are regarded as a sample from a multinomial distribution whose parameters are time-variant functions of inflation expectations. The parameters are estimated using a Bayesian recursive approach, which is a generalization of the Kalman filtering technique. For illustrative purposes, the method is applied to Japanese data. One notable finding from the empirical analysis is that the expectation formation process of Japanese enterprises has varied greatly over time.