Behavioral Theories of the Business Cycle
探讨预期冲击以及乐观和过度自信两种心理偏差对商业周期的影响，发现预期冲击和过度自信能增加周期波动，而乐观则不是有效的波动来源。
We explore the business cycle implications of expectation shocks and of two well-known psychological biases, optimism and overconfidence. The expectations of optimistic agents are biased toward good outcomes, whereas overconfident agents overestimate the precision of the signals that they receive. Both expectation shocks and overconfidence can increase business-cycle volatility, while preserving the model's properties in terms of comovement and relative volatilities. In contrast, optimism is not a useful source of volatility in our model.