Effects on a Corn‐Soybean Farm of Uncertainty about the Future of Farm Programs
用动态规划评估1990年农场法案最后一年,农场计划是否延续的不确定性如何影响农民的种植决策。研究发现,只有当农民主观认为计划延续概率极低时,决策才会受影响。
Abstract Dynamic programming techniques are used to evaluate effects of uncertainty about continuation of farm programs on planting decisions during the last year of the 1990 Farm Bill. Results indicate farm‐level decisions are affected by uncertainty only when the farmer's subjective probability of the continuation of farm programs is very low. The optimal value functions in different versions of the model can also be used to estimate the implicit value of base acreage.