Inflow Composition, Duration Dependence and their Impact on the Unemployment Outflow Rate*
利用英国数据估计失业流出率动态的组成部分，发现流入构成呈强逆周期，个体退出率对商业周期的敏感性高于以往认知，而持续时间依赖的周期变化不显著。
Abstract This paper presents estimates of the components of the dynamics of the unemployment outflow rate with British data. We allow both the composition of the inflow and individual duration dependence to vary over the business cycle. We find the inflow composition to be strongly countercyclical. Individual exit rates are found to be substatntially more sensitive to the business cycle than previously thought and than the average exit rate fluctuations suggest. Cyclical variations in duration dependence are not significant. With our estimates, fluctuations in the average exit rate out of the first year of unemployment are mainly accounted for by variations of individual exit rates, variation of inflow composition, and variation in the inflow level combined with the duration dependence phenomenon.