Fortunate Sons: New Estimates of Intergenerational Mobility in the United States Using Social Security Earnings Data
利用父母和子女的收入历史行政数据，发现美国代际收入弹性约为0.6，高于此前基于短期平均收入估计的0.4，表明美国社会流动性低于以往认知，且对低收入家庭影响更大。
Previous studies, relying on short-term averages of fathers' earnings, have estimated the intergenerational elasticity (IGE) in earnings to be approximately 0.4. Due to persistent transitory fluctuations, these estimates have been biased down by approximately 30% or more. Using administrative data containing the earnings histories of parents and children, the IGE is estimated to be around 0.6. This suggests that the United States is substantially less mobile than previous research indicated. Estimates of intergenerational mobility are significantly lower for families with little or no wealth, offering empirical support for theoretical models that predict differences due to borrowing constraints. © 2005 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.