Producing Biofuels in Low-Income Countries: An Integrated Environmental and Economic Assessment for Tanzania
综合评估坦桑尼亚生产生物燃料的温室气体排放和经济影响，发现将未利用土地转为甘蔗乙醇生产有经济激励，但仅草地（非森林）有合理碳回收期；小农户参与可减贫但需更多土地，环境约束改变了最优策略。
Abstract This paper jointly evaluates the greenhouse gas emissions and economic impacts from producing biofuels in Tanzania. Sequentially-linked models capture natural resource constraints; emissions from land use change; economywide growth linkages; and household poverty. Results indicate that there are economic incentives to convert unused lands to sugarcane-ethanol production, but only grasslands (not forests) have a reasonable carbon payback period. There are also strong socioeconomic reasons to involve smallholders in feedstock production in order to reduce rural poverty, especially since our results indicate that biofuels have little effect on food production. Yet smallholders require more land than large-scale plantations and so face more binding natural resource and emissions constraints. Overall, environmental constraints alter the socioeconomically optimal biofuel strategy for Tanzania by limiting potential poverty reduction. Unlike previous studies, our integrated assessment suggests that a mixed farming system with greater emphasis on large-scale plantations is more appropriate for producing sugarcane-ethanol in Tanzania.