Accounting for Forward Rates in Markets for Foreign Currency
发现主要货币的远期与即期汇率隐含了货币投机可预测回报和均衡价格度量的巨大标准差，而具有习惯持续性的代表性代理人模型能更好解释这些特征，但无法重现远期升水的强自相关性。
ABSTRACT Forward and spot exchange rates between major currencies imply large standard deviations of both predictable returns from currency speculation and of the equilibrium price measure (the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution). Representative agent theory with time‐additive preferences cannot account for either of these properties. We show that the theory does considerably better along these dimensions when the representative agent's preferences exhibit habit persistence, but that the theory fails to reproduce some of the other properties of the data—in particular, the strong autocorrelation of forward premiums.