The Panel Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle
研究1973年后浮动汇率时期长期购买力平价是否成立,发现面板单位根检验的证据随观测数增加而增强,但呈现高度周期性,与美元强弱相关,且现有模型无法解释这种周期模式。
Does long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) hold over the post-1973 floating exchange rate period? Panel unit root tests provide evidence of PPP that increases with the number of observations. The strengthening of the evidence, however, is highly cyclical. When the dollar appreciates at the end of the sample, the evidence of PPP strengthens and, when it depreciates, the evidence weakens. While these patterns cannot be explained by the specifications that are normally used to model real exchange rates, the strengthening, but not the cyclical pattern, can be explained by a specification that incorporates PPP restricted structural change.