Economic development, contraception and fertility decline in Mexico
利用1976年墨西哥生育调查数据，通过三方程联立模型分析避孕、期望子女数和生育率的决定因素，揭示现代化通过中间变量影响生育率的机制。
In recent years the observed rate of population growth in Mexico has shown evidence of decline from previous high levels. This decline in fertility has been linked to a shift from ‘natural fertility’ to deliberate family size limitation. This article utilises a choice theory based on a three‐equation simultaneous model to analyse determinants of contraception, desired number of children and fertility. Information for the empirical application is from the 1976 Mexican Fertility Survey. The results show that a simultaneous choice model predicts the consequences of modernisation on human fertility and suggests ways that modernisation affects fertility by proximate or intermediate variables.