The Less-Volatile U.S. Economy
用贝叶斯模型比较方法，发现美国实际GDP增长自1980年代初以来波动性降低，且主要源于周期成分，同时通胀动态也有类似的结构性变化。
Using a Bayesian model comparison strategy, we search for a volatility reduction in U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) growth within the postwar sample. We find that aggregate real GDP growth has been less volatile since the early 1980s, and that this volatility reduction is concentrated in the cyclical component of real GDP.Sales and production growth in many of the components of real GDP display similar reductions in volatility, suggesting the aggregate volatility reduction does not have a narrow source. We also document structural breaks in inflation dynamics that occurred over a similar time frame as the GDP volatility reduction.