Nuclear Power Reactors: A Study in Technological Lock-in
用核动力技术的历史案例,验证了动态递增收益下劣质技术可能主导市场的理论,指出美国海军早期采用轻水堆导致其锁定民用市场,对理解技术路径依赖和产业政策有参考价值。
Recent theory has predicted that if competing technologies operate under dynamic increasing returns, one, possibly inferior, technology will dominate the market. The history of nuclear power technology is used to illustrate these results. Light water is considered inferior to other technologies, yet it dominates the market for power reactors. This is largely due to the early adoption and heavy development by the U.S. Navy of light water for submarine propulsion. When a market for civilian power emerged, light water had a large head start, and by the time other technologies were ready to enter the market, light water was entrenched.