Productivity growth and convergence in crop, ruminant, and nonruminant production: measurement and forecasts
基于全要素生产率的最新时间序列证据，预测到2040年全球作物、反刍动物和非反刍动物生产的生产率增长，发现畜牧业生产率增长快于作物，非反刍动物比反刍动物更活跃，发展中国家非反刍动物和作物生产率可能趋同于发达国家，但反刍动物生产率可能发散。
Abstract Projections of future productivity growth rates in agriculture are an essential input for a great variety of tasks, ranging from development of an outlook for global commodity markets to the analysis of interactions between land use, deforestation, and ecological diversity. Yet solid projections for these variables have proven elusive—particularly on a global basis. This is due, in no small part, to the difficulty of measuring historical total factor productivity growth. Consequently, most productivity projections are based on partial factor productivity measures that can be quite misleading. The purpose of this work is to provide worldwide forecasts of agricultural productivity growth till the year 2040 based on the latest time series evidence on total factor productivity growth for crops, ruminants, and nonruminant livestock. The results suggest that most regions in the sample are likely to experience larger productivity gains in livestock than in crops. Within livestock, the nonruminant sector is expected to continue to be more dynamic than the ruminant sector. Given the rapid rates of productivity growth observed recently, nonruminant and crop productivity in developing countries may be converging to the productivity levels of developed countries. For ruminants, the results show that productivity levels in developing countries are likely to be diverging from those in developed countries.