U.S. Agricultural Policy and Gasohol: A Policy Simulation
用随机模拟模型评估不同汽油醇项目对美国玉米和大豆生产、价格、库存、出口及政府支出的影响，发现酒精产量低于20亿加仑时农业部门不会严重失调。
Abstract This research uses a stochastic simulation model to evaluate the implications of alternative gasohol programs for a large segment of the food and agricultural sector‐corn and soybean producers, consumers, and taxpayers. The impacts on corn and soybean prices, production, acreage planted, carryover stocks, exports, and commodity program expenditures are presented. The research findings indicate that alcohol production levels below 2.0 billion gallons do not result in serious dislocations in the agricultural sector. As the level of alcohol production increases and more grain is required, corn prices rise significantly, stocks fall to extremely low levels, exports decline, and government expenditures increase greatly.