The Politics of Forecasting: Managing the Truth
探讨了预测和建模过程中因非预测动机（如政治因素）导致的数据操纵问题，并提出了改善预测质量的措施，对管理者、投资者和咨询顾问有参考价值。
Executives think a lot about the future; it drives much of what modern management is all about. The techniques of forecasting and modeling, by their very nature, are designed to reduce the inherent uncertainty of the future. Unfortunately, motives other than predicting often politicize the forecasting and modeling process to the detriment of managerial decision quality and investor confidence. Many firms routinely manipulate elements of the forecasting process. Requests by senior management to purposely alter forecasts, backcast from previously established cost and revenue positions, or mis-specify models occur all too frequently. Better training, formalized forecasting procedures, codes of conduct, clearly defined consultants' roles, and punitive actions can improve the quality of forecasting.