The Costs of Recession
衡量经济周期的成本，通过计算代表性家庭为规避失业风险愿意放弃多少消费。批评了Lucas的估计方法，提出新框架显示成本远高于此前结论，质疑了“通胀重要而经济周期不重要”的观点。
The paper measures the cost of business cycles by asking what proportion of consumption representative households, whose head is currently employed, would be prepared to give up to avoid the risk of unemployment. Previous estimates by Lucas suggested that the costs of macroeconomic fluctuations measured in this way are surprisingly small. The first part of the paper presents a critique of the Lucas aggregate method showing that his estimates are not robust. An alternative disaggregated framework is then developed and shows that the costs of macroeconomic fluctuations are significantly higher than those obtained by Lucas. Consequently, the view that inflation ‘matters' whereas business cycles are unimportant events is questioned.