The Formation of Price Forecasts in Experimental Markets
通过实验室实验，分析146名参与者在12个现金奖励的双向拍卖市场中做出的500多个价格预测，检验理性预期、适应性预期和外推预期模型的有效性，发现数据支持适应性预期模型。
This study utilizes laboratory experimental methods to evaluate the empirical validity of: (1) rational expectations assumptions, (2) an adaptive expectations model, and (3) an extrapolative expectations model. Over 5 00 price forecasts from 146 participants in twelve experimental double-auction m arkets with a cash reward structure are analyzed. The forecasting objective is t hemean price over a sequence of trading periods governed by stationary market parameters. The price forecasts are found to be inconsistent with strict Muthian rational expectations and the extrapolative modelis not supported by the data. However, the forecasts generally support the adaptive expectations model. Copyright 1987 by Ohio State University Press.