Trade Promotion Decisions Under Demand Uncertainty: A Market Experiment Approach
通过理论分析和市场实验，研究了制造商与零售商在需求不确定下选择发票外折扣或扫描回扣两种贸易促销方式对价格、订单量和利润的影响，发现扫描回扣导致更高价格和更低订单量，而市场扩张时发票外折扣更深。
In this paper, we examine trade promotion decisions in manufacturer–retailer channels where retailers face consumer demand uncertainty. We first present the theoretical analysis for two types of markets where trade promotion discounts are offered either as off-invoices or as scan-backs. We derive propositions by comparing wholesale and retail prices, retailer order quantities, and profits given the same trade promotion discount. Next, we extend the basic model so that the amount of trade promotion discount influences market expansion and solve for the optimal discount level. To test our theory, we then employ market experiments where we manipulate demand uncertainty and market expansion. Consistent with our theoretical predictions, we find that wholesale and retail prices are higher and retailer order quantities lower when the same amount of trade promotion discount is allocated to scan-backs versus off-invoices. In the market expansion condition, we find that manufacturers offer deeper discounts when trade promotions are allocated to off-invoices versus scan-backs. Overall, our research suggests that market experiments can shed light on trade promotion outcomes for which industry data are sparse or nonexistent. This paper was accepted by Teck Ho, behavioral economics.