Has the U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based on a Markov-Switching Model of the Business Cycle
用贝叶斯方法分析战后美国实际GDP增长是否存在向稳定化的结构突变，发现1984年第一季度发生突变，且衰退与繁荣期增长率差距缩小比冲击波动下降更重要。
We hope to answer three questions: Has there been a structural break in postwar U.S. real GDP growth towards stabilization? If so, when? What is the nature of this structural break? We employ a Bayesian approach to identify a structural break at an unknown changepoint in a Markov-switching model of the business cycle. Empirical results suggest a break in GDP growth toward stabilization, with the posterior mode of the break date at 1984:1. Furthermore, we find a narrowing gap between growth rates during recessions and booms that is at least as important as any decline in the volatility of shocks. © 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology