Time to Burn: Modeling Wildland Arson as an Autoregressive Crime Function
用泊松自回归模型分析佛罗里达州野外纵火数据，发现纵火行为存在长达11天的自相关性，并受执法、管理、天气及经济因素影响，支持犯罪的经济学模型。
Abstract Six Poisson autoregressive models of order p [PAR( p )] of daily wildland arson ignition counts are estimated for five locations in Florida (1994–2001). In addition, a fixed effects time‐series Poisson model of annual arson counts is estimated for all Florida counties (1995–2001). PAR( p ) model estimates reveal highly significant arson ignition autocorrelation, lasting up to eleven days, in addition to seasonality and links to law enforcement, wildland management, historical fire, and weather. The annual fixed effects model replicates many findings of the daily models but also detects the influence of wages and poverty on arson, in ways expected from theory. All findings support an economic model of crime.