THE FULL‐DISTRIBUTION APPROACH TO AGGREGATE REPRESENTATION IN THE INPUT‐OUTPUT MODELING FRAMEWORK*
提出投入产出系数的概率规范，将不确定性归因于产业、制度和区位因素的系统性变异，而非测量误差，并用国家数据验证，为区间估计和结构比较提供新视角。
ABSTRACT. This paper presents a probabilistic specification of coefficients in the input‐ output modeling framework. Although previous works on probabilistic input‐output models attribute uncertainty to measurement and sampling errors, this specification derives from systematic variation directly attributable to industrial, institutional, and location factors. Experiments with national input‐output data support the existence of such variation. Employing the specification not only yields a more flexible aggregate modeling framework capable of producing interval impact estimates, but also an alternative perspective on such issues as interregional differentiation and structural comparison, the identification of key industrial sectors, aggregation, and spatial variation in production.