Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets
发现投资者对公共信息解读不同，并用交易量与收益关系反驳传统模型，进而构建新模型，最后用分析师预测数据验证。
Most models of trade in speculative markets assume that agents interpret public information identically. The authors provide empirical evidence on the relation between the volume of trade and stock returns around public announcements, and they argue that the evidence is inconsistent with this assumption. They then develop a model of trade around public announcements that incorporates differential interpretations and is consistent with the observed volume-return relation. Then the authors test the standard model of belief revision underlying most models of trade using stock brokerage research analysts' earnings forecasts. The hypothesis of identical interpretations seems inconsistent with the forecast revisions in these data. Copyright 1995 by University of Chicago Press.