Europe 1992 and the Western Pacific Economies
评估欧洲共同体1992年一体化计划及其相关变化对西太平洋经济体贸易和增长前景的影响，关注贸易转移效应和外部经济体可能受损的风险。
The main stimulus to completing the integration of the economies of the \n European Community under the 1992 programme has been the EC's relatively \n slow economic growth during the past two or three decades. While Japan's \n share of world GDP has trebled since the early 1960s, to about one sixth, the \n EC 12's share has fallen slightly to around one quarter. Many expect - or at \n least hope - that the removal of remaining barriers to movements of goods, \n services, people and capital within the EC not only will provide a one-off boost \n to EC output (Cecchini et al. 1988) but will set EC incomes on a permanently \n higher growth path (Baldwin, 1989). Numerous non-Europeans worry, \n however, that the trade-diverting consequences of the EC reforms, together \n with possible enlargements of EC membership and changes in EC preferential \n trading arrangements, will be much more significant than any external trade \n creation and may make some excluded economies worse off. This paper seeks \n to assess the effects of the EC92 programme and related changes currently \n underway in Europe on the trade and growth prospects of a particularly \n vulnerable group, namely, the Western Pacific economies.