The Quality of Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts During the Asian Crisis: Evidence from Singapore
研究亚洲危机期间新加坡证券分析师盈利预测的效率，发现危机后预测存在系统性向上偏差、未充分吸收负面盈利信息且预测变化过于极端。
We bring together three disparate strands of literature to develop a comprehensive empirical framework to examine the efficiency of security analysts' earnings forecasts in Singapore. We focus specifically on how the increased uncertainty and the negative market sentiment during the period of the Asian crisis affected the quality of earnings forecasts. While we find no evidence of inefficiencies in the pre‐crisis period, our results suggest that after the onset of the crisis, analysts (1) issued forecasts that were systematically upward biased; (2) did not fully incorporate the (negative) earnings‐related news; and (3) predicted earnings changes which proved too extreme.