Vessel Entry‐Exit Behavior in the Gulf of Mexico Shrimp Fishery
用离散选择模型预测墨西哥湾虾类渔业中船舶进入、退出或留下的概率，发现船队规模对进入概率有强烈负影响，而资源丰度变化不影响渔民行为。
Abstract Given the heterogeneous nature of the fishing fleet and complex vessel behavior, traditional marginalist supply models are not well suited for modeling vessel mobility. A discrete choice model is utilized here to predict the probability that a vessel will enter, exit, or remain in the Gulf of Mexico shrimp fishery based on a myopic profit maximization criterion. The multinomial logit model indicates that fisherman behavior is not influenced by stock variability. The crowding externality as represented by size of fishing fleet exhibits a strong negative impact on the probability of entry, independent of changes in abundance, exvessel prices, or harvest costs. The Gulf of Mexico shrimp fishery was not an autonomous system of fishing vessels as initially believed.