Market Efficiency and the Favorite‐Longshot Bias: The Baseball Betting Market
检验美国职业棒球大联盟合法赌博市场的效率，发现棒球博彩中存在与赛马博彩相反的热门冷门偏差，但考虑佣金后无法实现盈利策略。
ABSTRACT This paper examines the efficiency of the legal gambling market for major league baseball. Weak‐form tests of market efficiency within and across odds lines are performed. Surprisingly, the consistently observed favorite‐longshot bias in racetrack betting is shown to exist in reverse for baseball bettors. However, these and other deviations from efficiency are shown to be insufficient to allow for profitable betting strategies when commissions are considered.