Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises?
研究发现资本流入激增使银行危机概率从4%升至14%，该效应通过债务和股权组合流动实现，且部分独立于贷款繁荣机制。
This article asks whether capital inflows bonanzas increase the probability of banking crises and whether this occurs through a lending boom mechanism. Results indicate that bonanzas more than triple the odds of a crisis, raising its probability to 14% (from an unconditional probability of 4%). This effect exists in the absence of a lending boom and is found in both net and gross inflows bonanzas. This effect is driven by portfolio‐equity and debt flows. While the effect of debt is channelled through excessive lending, the effect of portfolio‐equity flows is present even in the absence of a lending boom.