The Effects of Uncertainty and Adjustment Costs on Investment in the Almond Industry
构建了一个新古典投资模型，考虑价格和产量的随机性，分析不确定性和调整成本如何影响杏仁行业的投资决策，并通过样本内和样本外测试验证模型优于不考虑不确定性或调整成本的模型。
A neoclassical model of investment behavior is developed wherein firms are assumed to maximize the expected present value of net revenue under Leontief technology. Prices and yields are assumed to be stochastic. This framework yields investment as a function of the expected present value of the output from one unit of capital and the variance of the expected value. This theory is applied to investment in the almond industry. The model outperforms both a model without uncertainty and one with neither uncertainty nor adjustment costs using in-sample and out-of-sample tests. Copyright 1989 by MIT Press.