A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles
提出一种检验投机泡沫的方法，通过比较两种方式估计的股息现值参数是否一致来判断泡沫是否存在，并应用于美国股市数据，结果通常拒绝无泡沫的原假设。
The set of parameters needed to calculate the expected present discounted value of a stream of dividends can be estimated in two ways. One may test for speculative bubbles, or fads, by testing whether the two estimates are the same. When the test is applied to some annual U. S. stock market data, the data usually reject the null hypothesis of no bubbles. The test is of general interest, since it may be applied to a wide class of linear rational expectations models.