A Multi‐Year, Stochastic, Farm Simulation Model for Northern Nigeria: An Experimental Design Approach
用实验设计方法构建多年度随机农场模拟模型，分析尼日利亚北部小农场的收入增长前景，发现随机事件、家庭规模和资源禀赋是财务绩效的关键决定因素。
Abstract The paper illustrates the use of experimental design in simulation modelling. Income growth prospects for small farms in northern Nigeria are examined under deterministic and stochastic conditions. A partial factorial design is employed to assess the impact on growth of resource endowment, stochastic yields and returns, consumption behavior, and enterprise opportunities. Analysis of variance on the deterministic results indicates that the key determinants of financial performance are stochastic events and family size and resource endowment. Capital accumulation under stochastic returns is slower than under fixed average returns. The value of a multi‐year model is discussed.