THE NEW ZEALAND BUSINESS CYCLE
为二战后的新西兰构建了新的季度实际GDP序列和经典商业周期转折点，利用马尔可夫转换模型分析周期不对称性、波动性和持续时间依赖等特征，为下一代周期增长模型提供基础。
Our paper is in the spirit of Rex Bergstrom's interests and research in cyclical growth models and his meticulous attention to underlying data series. We develop a new quarterly real GDP series for post–World War II New Zealand, derive a new “benchmark” set of classical business cycle turning points, and establish nonparametric classical cycle characteristics. Markov-switching models, estimated by Gibbs-sampling methods, are used to derive mean growth rate and volatility regimes and to add to existing knowledge. The resulting properties, involving cycle asymmetries, volatility, diversity and duration dependence, and differing mean growth rate and volatility regimes, can be used to underpin a next generation of cyclical growth models for New Zealand, in the Bergstrom tradition.