AD HOC MODEL BUILDING USING TIME‐VARYING PARAMETER MODELS*
提出一种系统方法，利用时变参数估计来构建临时行为模型，以应对特定情境现象和数据限制，并通过评估公共政策对居民天然气节约的影响案例进行说明。
ABSTRACT Decision support for managers and policy makers, such as required in planning and evaluation efforts, often requires ad hoc behavioral modeling to account for context‐specific phenomena and to handle data limitations. This paper introduces a systematic approach useful for meeting these requirements in which time‐varying parameter estimation plays an important role. A case study evaluating the impacts of public policy actions on residential natural gas conservation illustrates the approach.